Collins Report

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

These are trying times for our national pollsters. They have to juggle state polls showing a steady collapse for Barack Obama, yet produce national polls that make the race look close. Why would they do this?

It’s good for business.

Consider these numbers: Obama’s up just 5 in New York, 3 in New Jersey and 2 in Washington. Does ‘thisclose’ in deep blue states add up to “A national poll we can believe in!”?

Obama’s losing ground everywhere, not by a little, but by a lot.

His numbers are crumbling among White men, White women, Catholics, Evangelicals, Independents and his base.

So where are pollsters finding Obama supporters to talk to and report a tied race?

Obama is -12 with White women, a group he desperately has to win by at least double digits. Among White males, even the 36% Al Gore and John Kerry got now looks way out of reach.

Catholics, who will be 26% of voters, are running away from him. He is down 59/36 fully 10 points below what Kerry got.

Evangelicals gave George Bush 71% in 2004, showing what they will do when they support a candidate. This year they have a chance to vote for an Evangelical Christian they are wild about. A 75% support is not out of reach.

With Independents Obama is losing 52/37.

The most telling number for Obama is his disappearing Democratic base support which runs from 86% down to 81%. A new poll from Ohio puts it at just 82%

Where these pollsters are finding a few Obama supporters to interview is a mystery. What is not a mystery is that if they released polls showing Obama is finished, it would be bad for business. Reporting the Yankees are in 4th place doesn’t sell papers, but “Close” races do.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Sometimes it seems that the Barack Obama/Joe Biden campaign is a contest between the two of them to see who can make a dumber gaffe.

Last week we saw Joe Biden asking a local Democrat confined to a wheelchair to “Stand up Chuck!” When he realized he had committed yet another Bidenism, Joe asked the silent staring man, “Can you tell I’m new at this?” This from a man in his sixth term in the Senate. Biden followed up with an opinion that Obama should have picked Hillary Clinton instead of him.

These peeks into the slow moving brain of the Senator from Delaware aside, Barack Obama’s gaffes have been still more damaging.

Recently Obama claimed membership in the Senate’s Banking Committee. He described how “My committee.. just this past week.. [passed a bill]… for divestment from Iran as a way of ratcheting up the pressure to ensure that they don’t obtain a nuclear weapon.”

Of course this was a clumsy pander to Jewish voters, but it is still worse. Obama is not a member of the Senate Banking Committee. In political speak he misspoke, but he lied. Either way he showed he still doesn’t understand the Senate, because it’s above his pay grade.

Nevertheless, Obama topped himself commenting on our financial crisis. Obama said, “Eight years of policies that have shredded consumer protections; have brought us to the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

Obviously Obama is blaming the Democrat controlled Senate Anti trust Competition and Consumer Rights sub committee. Throughout Obama’s brief stay in the Senate Joe Biden has been a member of this committee, but maybe Obama doesn’t know that. He doesn’t know which committees he’s on. Why should he know Biden’s committees?. All of this seems to be above Obama’s pay grade.

By the way Obama and Biden have been campaigning, it seems that besides not knowing their committee assignments, or who should be on their ticket, they seem to think they are running against George Bush. You can’t make this up.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The straw grabbing will start as the sunsets on the ill fated quixotic campaign of Barack Obama and Sancho Biden sweeps up the donkey droppings, while they drag themselves through Washington, their hometown. We will hear more and more about how he will stun conventional thinkers with improbable victories in a few states.

Obama will say he is going to win a few southern states, namely Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Nothing in politics is truly impossible of course but the odds against an Obama victory in these states is as close to impossible as you can get.

Recently, the Washington Post did some research into what would be necessary for such a political miracle to occur. The numbers involved are very telling.

In these three states, as in the case with any state Obama needs to take from the GOP column, the first requirement for an Obama victory is that he hold all of the White vote that John Kerry got.

From there an Obama victory in these three old south states requires Democrats to increase Black turnout in Virginia by 30%, in North Carolina by 36% and Florida by 23%. These numbers are so high as to scarcely demand attention. When Republicans won solid victories across the nation in 2004 the GOP increased Republican turnout by less than 5%. Double figure increases are just not going to happen among any group.

Finally, the plan calls for Obama getting 95% of the Black vote. While it is tempting to say of course Obama will get this requirement without a doubt, consider these numbers.

During the Democratic primaries, Obama averaged just 84.4% of the Black vote. Could that swell all the way up to the necessary 95%? That’s a very tall order.
A recent Zogby poll reported that Obama “had lost some support among Blacks…”
Nobody gets 100% of any group.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The generic numbers are collapsing. The terribly bad choice the Democrats have made in nominating Barack Obama is beginning to threaten their down ballot candidates.
As I have pointed out before, Barack Obama is turning into a flaming tire around the neck of many of their own candidates. A new Gallup poll released today shows that the “generic ballot” choice for American voters has closed from 11 points just last week to just 3 points today.

Obviously the comparison between Gov. Sarah Palin and Senator Joe Biden has made things worse and increased the bleeding rather than helped the Democrats regain their edge. Few people wanted to listen to those of us who saw Obama as a millstone around his party’s neck. Now all the world is seeing it.

The generic polls ask voters which party they will vote for regardless of the candidates involved. No names are used. The generic ballot polls always show Republicans under performing. This is so historically true that most observers agree that if the generic is anything better than –4 for Republicans they are actually ahead. To further illuminate this point consider this: the last generic poll going into the 1994 election when Republicans picked up 53 seats, showed the GOP + 6. Those of us who understood the power of the generic poll were not surprised at the outcome of those races.

The generic poll is now 48/45 with the Democrats.

Across America there are worried and upset Democratic House candidates sitting in their war rooms wondering why their party nominated a man who will pull their whole party into a ditch come November 4.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Since February I have been saying that Barack Obama would get crushed in this year’s presidential election. There were times when I was a very lonely voice on the web. “Experts” who were mostly Democrat operatives and politically castrated Beltway Republicans were saying this is a big Democratic year. I never believed it for a second.

The signs of trouble for the Democrats have always been there, if one cared to look at them. The Democratic operatives did not want to. The media did not want to. The feckless Republicans hiding under their desks wringing their hands over some nebulous line about the “Republican brand name” not being good joined in. Even Eric cantor whose job it is to elect Republicans to Congress talked that way. Why? Someone would have to ask him. One thing was clear, however: there was not a thimble full of courage in the ranks of elected Republicans.

While this was taking place the rank and file Democrats were steadily moving forward in their suicidal quest to nominate an inexperienced Marxist who is listed as the most liberal senator in America who happens to be Black and has a Muslim name. This while we are in a war against an enemy who has the same sounding names. The backdrop to the Obama “surge” was that the Democratically controlled Congress was racking up record breaking low approval numbers.

Week after week the Democrat cheerleaders in the media overlooked the fact that the GOP lost the House with a 37% approval rating. When there was some passing reference to these numbers the media always pointed to polls saying that about 30% of Americans thought the Republicans still controlled the House. I have written that this means 70% know who does control Congress and that I would bet that the percentage of actual voters in the 70% group was most likely geometrically higher that the 30% group.

Today it is no longer “wishful thinking” or “proof you have been smoking something” to say John McCain will crush Barack Obama. And yes I heard read those comments about me publicly and worse in private.

Now it is no longer surprising to hear the McCain will win. I have been calling the Democrat’s nominee Barack McGovern since February. Now I will go one step further. In the past I have said that the Obama campaign will be stillborn. Now I will predict the day everyone joins me in my pronouncement about the Obama campaign being a landslide loser: it will be Monday September 29,2008.

The weekend polls that always favor Democrats will be so telling that all of America will come to understand that there is no hope. At this point the McCain/Palin campaign will switch gears and start to appeal to voters to vote them a Republican Congress. Whether that happens or not is a question for future essay.

In the meanwhile he are the numbers that say it is over. These numbers say that there will only be four elected Democrats who will be happy on Nov. 5, the Clintons, George McGovern and Walter Mondale because Barack Obama will take them off the hook as having taken the worse beatings in history.

These are the numbers right now. To win Obama must get these numbers with these groups: women, he needs at least plus 7. He is down 12.

White males needs at least 36%. He is battling to change the minds of this group and is not having any success. If he gets 30% he will be lucky

Catholics: needs 50%. He is down 59/36.

Evangelicals: needs 71%. He is running against an Evangelical and has nothing to offer these Christian voters.

Jewish vote: needs 80%. He is at 57%.

Black vote: needs 95%. Zogby says he has “lost support” among Black voters.

Hispanic vote: needs 65%. The only polls available show he is at 65% so that won’t help, it will only slow the bleeding.

Democrat base support: needs 92%. He is at 86%.

Independents: needs 49%. He is losing 52/37.

This one is over. On September 30, 2008 the McCain Palin campaign must plan on switching gears and start asking for votes to give them a Republican Congress. It could keep the margin down and keep us safe from the Democrats for another two years.