Collins Report

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

On Oct 30, 2004 the presidential race between incumbent George Bush and challenger Senator John Kerry was neck and neck with Kerry in a slightly better position. That morning brought news that Osama Bib laden had released a threatening message to the American people.
He warned us we were still in jeopardy and he intended to strike again. He blamed President Bush and America for the Sept 11th attacks.
Campaigning in Ohio, President Bush responded by saying “Americans will not be intimidated … by an enemy… we are at war with…”
Campaigning in Florida John Kerry responded by saying “…[Americans will]… hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists.” He made no mention of being at war. He sounded like a police chief vowing to catch a bank robber. It reminded America that the terrorist were rooting for John Kerry because they believed a President Kerry would make their job easier.
Today another October 30 has brought another ominous message from al Qaeda calling Bush a tyrant and for “…George Bush and the Republicans to be humiliated” and asking God to “ .. degrade and defy him.”
John McCain will talk about this message over this weekend. Standing firm, he will call this message a reason to vote for him because he will finish the ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with a victory. His message will stick.
Lets hope history repeats itself and Barack Obama responds with a Kerry-like “police chief’s announcement” about capturing Bin Laden and says nothing about winning a war. If he does it will remind America that the terrorists are rooting for Barack Obama to win because they believe a President Obama will make their job easier.
Then let’s hope Americans hear his response clearly and we see déjà vu all over again.
The 2004 al Qaeda threat moved all the undecided voters to George Bush. This can be a game changer.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Yesterday’s IBD/TIPPs poll reported an overall 9.2% “undecided.” This is a very high number at this point in any election cycle and should be worrisome for Barack Obama.

But far worse is the reported 13% undecided in the very blue Northeast. If this number is right that’s Halloween scary and could spell defeat for Obama. If he can’t shake his “Undecided problem” in the deeply blue Northeast where Obama should have things wrapped up, he is in trouble. The Northeast is supposed to be Obamaland.

IBD/TIPPs shows John McCain up 53/40 with just 7% undecided in the red Republican South where saying you are voting McCain presents no problem.

A 13% undecided in the Northeast begs pollsters to ask new questions.

Instead of just asking voters whom they will be voting for, more pointedly, pollsters should be asking these questions.

“Regardless of how you feel personally and regardless of how you intend to vote, how many friends and family members, are you aware of, who are reporting they will be voting for Barack Obama, but actually have no intention of doing so because Senator Obama is an African American?”

“Regardless of how you will be voting, how many of your friends and family members have told a pollster he/she is “undecided” as to whom to vote for, but are actually voting for John McCain and saying “undecided” to avoid feeling like a racist?”

“Regardless of what your own personal conduct has been, or how you intend to vote, how many of your friends and family have falsely reported that they are registered as a Democrat after telling to a pollster they intended to vote for Senator Obama, but will vote for Senator McCain?”

We won’t see the answers until November 4. Let’s hope that will be too late for Obama.

If you live in the Northeast as I do, you probably know “undecided voters” as I do. This is will be an interesting Election night.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

This election is a referendum on preserving America as we know it. We will decide to either save the America we grew up in or plunge our nation into the gray faceless socialism Barack Obama is promising us.

Rarely do we get such a clear cut choice. On one hand we have a candidate telling us he will surrender in our war on terrorism, teardown our economy and destroy our hard won freedoms. On the other we have a candidate that offers hope that we can save what we have and rebuild the firewall of sane government that has made us the greatest most prosperous, most benevolent nation in history.

Today we awoke to news that America may be starting to see the danger Barack Obama poses in every facet of his plans. We are closing the gap faster than the “experts” thought we could.

But we have to fight and fight hard to save our country. We have no option but to fight like America’s life is on the line because it is. If the light of America is smothered and we slip into the 1984 Orwellian world the Democrats promise, no one will save us or the rest of the world.

We the Broken Glass Conservatives have just a few days to act. We have to volunteer at local headquarters, give our time and/or give our money or we will be giving our blood sweat and tears to socialist Democrats that are not even trying to hide their intentions to destroy our America.

Looking back a week from today and feeling smugly superior because we were smart enough not to fall for Obama’s Soviet style plans will be no consolation if we have to face our children and grandchildren and explain why and how we let America die.

It’s time to step up and fight shoulder to shoulder to save our country from her domestic enemies. Barack Obama is bad for America and we have to stop him.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The media has tried to ordain him “Barack Obama, the incumbent president”, but the evidence suggests many Americans see him as “Barack Obama the unknown.”

If history repeats itself, this could present serious problems for his efforts to close out this election.

These are tumultuous times filled with unknowns. People want stability. Voters want to support a “known” with the flaws they recognize over the total unknown Obama as the media has crafted him.

Regardless of what the media wants us to believe, there is no incumbent in this race. Obama’s artificial “incumbency” can’t shake the high number of undecided voters still showing up in polling data. This runs counter to Obama’s campaign plans.

A look at the late October 2004 polls might seem to say President Bush attracted undecided voters because of his incumbency. A closer look, however, suggests the undecided voters moved to Bush when they compared the “known George Bush” to the “unknown John Kerry” on how each would handle the main issues of the day.

The war on terror and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were on the minds of Americans in November 2004. Just before the election, Bin Ladin released a tape threatening America if we did not turn George Bush out of office. This exacerbated the problem of being an unknown terror fighter for Kerry who was in fact very much better known than Obama is today.

The average 2.4% undecideds on October 25, 2004 all went to George Bush not because he was the incumbent but because he was the “known” that voters wanted.

In 2004 the TIPPs poll, was the most accurate predictor of the final outcome. Today TIPPs is reporting a 10 point undecided level.

McCain is the known. By design Obama is the unknown. This could do him in.

Even Zogby has over 6 points of undecideds in his latest report. That is a sharp contrast to the zero undecideds he reported at this time in 2004.
This election is not over. If and again this is a big IF, we see the undecideds go to John Mccain the known candidate as they did to George Bush the known candidate he will win. Ifs and MAYBEs are usually for children, but this time an IF or a MAYBE might write history.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

In 1982 Tom Bradley, a competent Black man, was on his way to becoming California’s first Black Governor then he lost. He was a mainstream Democrat that didn’t scare anyone with his plans, but his race beat him.

Today Barack Obama a Black man is running for president. He has small but definite leads in most polls, but that might be where he and Bradley are different.

Looking back, Bradley’s race appears to have defeated him. By contrast Obama’s plans scare lots of people.

The media likes to cite a 3% Bradley factor they’ve picked out of the air.

They rely on people not realizing that the race will be a zero sum game. “What comes to me must come from you” explains the situation. Remember the 3% folds over on itself, so if A and B are tied at 50 but 3% of A’s voters are lying and really going to vote for B, the real effect creates a 53/47 advantage for B.

Two recent AOL items suggest a Bradley presence bigger than anyone is admitting. The first giddily reported that “70% said race was not a factor” in this election. How a 30% yes response is proof of no Bradley factor in this race is a mystery.

The second item was a poll of more than 200,000 respondents in which 17% admitted “race will be very important” in this election.

Bradley was viewed as “just another Democrat.” Obama is viewed by many as a socialist.

Even before they knew of Obama’s socialist ideology, 20% of Democrats reported they wouldn’t vote for him.

Bradley was a Black Democrat and lost. Many see Obama as a Black socialist with very alarming plans.

It might not be his race that beats him; his plans and his race might beat Barack Obama.

One thing that now seems obvious is that John McCain and Sarah Palin will not be ahead in any poll until the one that counts.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

A recent AP poll screamed trouble for Barack Obama.

It reported his base support to be just 80%. If this is accurate, and that is a very big IF, he can not win.

Last June when former Hillary Clinton supporters were asked, 58% supported Obama. But the same survey also showed 21% voting for John McCain. A follow-up survey of the very same people showed support for McCain had grown to 28% while remaining stagnant at 58% for Obama. The undecideds seem to be moving to McCain.

These numbers have been swept under the rug by the media, but they are still very important.

During the Democratic primaries, exit polls showed a consistent core of 20% that would not be voting for Obama in the general election.

Whether Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos can be blamed for this distressing news for Obama can be debated, but it doesn’t completely explain away the numbers in the face of subsequent polls showing the same results.

If Obama is getting just 80% of Democrat support he is in trouble. A base support this low can not be overcome and will not get Obama elected. Almost all polls of rank and file Democrats have shown Obama’s base support in the eighties and mid seventies.

In 2000 Al Gore got 92% and lost. In 2004 John Kerry got 89% and lost by a clear margin.

There would have to be a huge difference in party identification to pull Obama through with just 80% of his base. The reported split among Independents doesn’t help either.

A September AP poll of Democratic and Independent likely voters showed that 1/3 hold negative views of Blacks. The same surveyed showed that 40% of all Americans have negative views toward Blacks. Is it that hard to believe the 80% support level?

The base support numbers tell the story. If they are real, this will be a tough night for the Democrat’s candidate. Additional fresh information reveals that the TIPPs poll has Obama with an 86 percent base support, but the 11.6% undecided number makes that suspect.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

A new AP poll showing John McCain down by one point was indeed good news.

A quick read of its likely voter internals provides stunning news:

Obama’s base support is not there

Hiding down at the very end of the article was a stunning piece of bad news for Barack Obama: Democrat base support is just “eight of 10” and the Republican base support for McCain is 90%. Neither candidate can win with just 80% of his base support. The “even split” found among Independents clearly adds to Obama’s troubles if these numbers hold.

The Joe the Plumber factor

McCain has closed the gap with Joe and Jane the Plumber.

He now trails by just 4 points with likely voters making under $50,000. A month ago was down 26 points.

McCain has surged among rural voters and now has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

He doubled his advantage among whites who haven’t finished college and now leads by 20 points.

McCain has gone from plus 10 to plus 20 among Whites who have not finished college. Among White college graduates he is even.

McCain now leads White women by 7 points and White men by 22 points. This is very good for McCain because Obama’s White male vote might still be in the upper 30’s. Since Al Gore and John Kerry got 36%, it is very unlikely that his support among White males will do anything but fall just as Kerry’s did in the last two weeks in 2004.

Improving even on a strength, McCain is now up 24 points with married Whites, and trails by just 8 points among unmarried Whites.

Last month’s survey gave Obama a 15 point advantage on handling the economy and the financial crisis. That advantage on both fronts is down to 6 points.

The media attempt to blame Republicans for the financial crisis is coming apart and may not be swaying Americans anymore.

by Kevin “Coach” Collins

As has been the case in just about every presidential election cycle in recent memory, the polls are showing the Democratic candidate pulling away in October.

In just three elections of the last ten has this trend held up.

Why this is true is hard to say.

What is true is there are no credible reports of the major voting blocks: White women, White men, Catholics or Evangelical Christians moving to support Barack Obama in numbers he will need.

Of these groups the most immovable for Obama will be White males who will be 43% of the electorate.

For a variety of reasons no Democrat has won White males since 1964. The percentage of White males backing Democrats for president fell to 36% in 2004. As things stand, Obama does not appear headed to get even that much backing.

How low can this column sink for Obama ?

A just completed poll of America’s Military might provide a clue as to what the White male numbers could be this year.

The Military Times asked 4300 of its readers whom they supported. John McCain leads 68/23.

Admittedly this survey was of a conservative universe. Yet given the White male make up of the military ( 65%) and its exact match with the population in general, the gap from 36% to 23% suggests White males might be finding Obama especially hard to support.

Our military is 62/38 male. John McCain is leading among military females with 53%.

A September AP-Yahoo poll of only White Democrats suggests Obama’s White male support is not growing. AP-Yahoo said one third of White Democrats and 40% of all White Americans hold negative opinions of Blacks. Or was it of Obama himself? Can anyone say for sure that these folks will change their mind by November 4th?

At this point the polls could be right. John McCain could be down by a big margin; then again it might be that respondents backing Obama are the only ones willing to answer the pollster’s questions.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

“There are no great men, only great challenges that ordinary men are forced by circumstances to meet.” William F. “Bull” Halsey

An ordinary American, a man we have come to call Joe the Plumber, has had his life turned upside down because he told Barack Obama his tax plans would hurt his dream of owning his own business.

In an unguarded moment Obama was caught on camera using the Marxist language of “spreading the wealth.” Immediately, Joe and the rest of America recognized the “wealth” Obama meant to “spread around” was our hard earned money.

Now Joe is being savagely attacked by the Obama camp ( let’s be honest Obama will say his campaign is not doing anything, but that is a lie).

But as the Left has now learned, Joe was a great American waiting to happen. He accepts the challenge to greatness and is standing tall.

Nevertheless, he needs our help. If we let this good man stand alone we will be no better than the Socialists trying to destroy all of us.

Make no mistake about the fury of the attacks America’s Joes will face. The Communist Party of America has said, “this is our time” and they mean it. Obama is their candidate and the have been saving themselves for this fight since they were pushed down a hole in the Reagan years.

We must find and take every opportunity for greatness that comes before us. Standing alone Joe will be one easy target. But standing with him, we can overwhelm the forces of gray lifelessness that want to make our America a socialist gulag.

Now is the hour of America’s need. All of America’s Joes need to stand up and fight for our country against those who would destroy her.

Final note: Interestingly enough the beginning of Joe’s name “Wurzel” means “root” in German. Joe is at the very root of what American life is about and that is obvious. Because he has such strong roots nothing Barack Obama or Joe Biden have been able to say has hurt this fine man.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

One of the lasting effects of Ronald Reagan’s administration was ending the so-called “Fairness Doctrine.” This was an insidious government intrusion into the news gathering process of every American. The doctrine required what was euphemistically called “equal time” which forced us in turn to listen to liberal propaganda in an “equal time” answer to conservative commentary.

The Liberals hated Ronald Reagan for ending their scam. They can’t compete with conservative ideas in a free marketplace and they know it.

For 20 years Liberals have waited for their chance to force us back to a Soviet style government controlled media.

They now have a most powerful ally in their fight: The mainstream media (MSM) who would rather be red than dead.

For several years each quarter has brought news of another MSM outlet in trouble because of a sharp declines in reader/viewer- ship and ad revenue.

Now The Chicago Tribune and other newspapers that have extensively chronicled Barack Obama’s connections to terrorist William Ayers, criminal Anton Rezko and fraudulent voter operation ACORN are endorsing Barack Obama.

Why would they do this?

The answer is simple. The real reason the MSM is endorsing Obama is because he will sign a new “Fairness Doctrine” into law and that will kill the MSM’s mortal enemy: the new media. The new law will quickly kill Talk Radio. It will eventually kill Fox News and instantly kill religious programming.

They want Obama to kill the new media because they can’t.

These quislings care nothing about America. They are all “in the tank” for Obama because they expect a quid pro quo: “We get you elected, you kill the new media for us.”

They would rather become Obama’s Pravda than try competing with the new media. They have been too liberal for too long to even try.