Collins Report

by Kevin “Coach” Collins

As has been the case in just about every presidential election cycle in recent memory, the polls are showing the Democratic candidate pulling away in October.

In just three elections of the last ten has this trend held up.

Why this is true is hard to say.

What is true is there are no credible reports of the major voting blocks: White women, White men, Catholics or Evangelical Christians moving to support Barack Obama in numbers he will need.

Of these groups the most immovable for Obama will be White males who will be 43% of the electorate.

For a variety of reasons no Democrat has won White males since 1964. The percentage of White males backing Democrats for president fell to 36% in 2004. As things stand, Obama does not appear headed to get even that much backing.

How low can this column sink for Obama ?

A just completed poll of America’s Military might provide a clue as to what the White male numbers could be this year.

The Military Times asked 4300 of its readers whom they supported. John McCain leads 68/23.

Admittedly this survey was of a conservative universe. Yet given the White male make up of the military ( 65%) and its exact match with the population in general, the gap from 36% to 23% suggests White males might be finding Obama especially hard to support.

Our military is 62/38 male. John McCain is leading among military females with 53%.

A September AP-Yahoo poll of only White Democrats suggests Obama’s White male support is not growing. AP-Yahoo said one third of White Democrats and 40% of all White Americans hold negative opinions of Blacks. Or was it of Obama himself? Can anyone say for sure that these folks will change their mind by November 4th?

At this point the polls could be right. John McCain could be down by a big margin; then again it might be that respondents backing Obama are the only ones willing to answer the pollster’s questions.