Collins Report

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

A new AP poll showing John McCain down by one point was indeed good news.

A quick read of its likely voter internals provides stunning news:

Obama’s base support is not there

Hiding down at the very end of the article was a stunning piece of bad news for Barack Obama: Democrat base support is just “eight of 10” and the Republican base support for McCain is 90%. Neither candidate can win with just 80% of his base support. The “even split” found among Independents clearly adds to Obama’s troubles if these numbers hold.

The Joe the Plumber factor

McCain has closed the gap with Joe and Jane the Plumber.

He now trails by just 4 points with likely voters making under $50,000. A month ago was down 26 points.

McCain has surged among rural voters and now has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

He doubled his advantage among whites who haven’t finished college and now leads by 20 points.

McCain has gone from plus 10 to plus 20 among Whites who have not finished college. Among White college graduates he is even.

McCain now leads White women by 7 points and White men by 22 points. This is very good for McCain because Obama’s White male vote might still be in the upper 30’s. Since Al Gore and John Kerry got 36%, it is very unlikely that his support among White males will do anything but fall just as Kerry’s did in the last two weeks in 2004.

Improving even on a strength, McCain is now up 24 points with married Whites, and trails by just 8 points among unmarried Whites.

Last month’s survey gave Obama a 15 point advantage on handling the economy and the financial crisis. That advantage on both fronts is down to 6 points.

The media attempt to blame Republicans for the financial crisis is coming apart and may not be swaying Americans anymore.