Collins Report

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

There are a number of ballot initiatives in important states that will bring conservatives to the polls.

In Florida voters will decide a Gay “marriage” initiative. As is always the case at this point in a cycle, the measure is ahead 55/34. We know the “Bradley” factor shows itself in elections involving Black candidates. Evidence shows there is also a “lavender” factor in voting on Gay “marriage” questions.

In 2004 all such measures failed by percentages ranging from 58% up to 85%.

Pre- election polls showed all these measures would pass.

In Pennsylvania voters will be asked to approve a measure to allow the state to add 4 Billion dollars to its debt for water and sewer projects. Given recent economic events, this should bring conservatives to the polls

In already economically distressed Ohio, voters will be asked to approve another Democrat spending spree. This time it amounts to 2 billion dollars of new debt to fund environmental projects. Voters will also be given an opportunity to protect individual property rights against state rules mandating how private property can be used. These Ohio measures will bring out conservatives and help Republican candidates at every level.

Michigan: A proposal to expand the use of human embryonic stem cells will bring out pro-life conservatives to stop its passage. Proposal 08-2 would use human embryonic stem cells instead of adult stem cells which will reduce the need for future abortions. This will provide a rallying point for Pro life voters to work under and give conservatives another reason to go to the polls and vote conservatively as they do.

In Missouri, Constitutional Amendment 2 will give voters the chance to make English the official language of the state. This will bring conservatives to the polls and help conservative candidates from top to bottom.

How “self identified Democrats” really vote

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Since 1972 exit polls have favored Democrats without regard for the actual electoral result. That people SAY they are Democrats, but VOTE Republican is very evident.

In 1972 Richard Nixon crushed George McGovern.

Nevertheless, a quick glance at the exit poll numbers might lead to the assumption that the exit polls would show a big Republican self- identification. This could not be more wrong.

In 1972 the exit polls showed that although Americans had just voted for Nixon in record breaking numbers, they still self identified as Democrats by a margin of 46/35, with 19% Independents.

In 1984 Ronald Reagan crushed a hapless Walter Mondale.

In 1984 when Ronald Reagan won the biggest landslide victory of all time, “self identified Democrats” still outnumbered Republicans 38-36 with 26% Independents.

In 1976 when Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by 3 points, the exit polls showed self identified Democrats out numbered Republicans by 16 points.

Huge victory no edge

The most surprising disparity in these self Identification numbers surfaced after the 1994 elections. In spite of the blood bath House Democrats suffered, as they lost fifty three seats and their 42 year hammerlock on control of the Congress, the exit polls bore no relationship to the actual vote across America.

While the pre election generic polls showed Republicans holding an astounding 6 point lead, the Democrats still outpaced Republicans, 36/35 with a record breaking 29% Independents.

The clear point is that even in the absence of a Bradley factor, voters will still reflexively self identify as Democrats. This casts some doubt on the strength of the self- identification numbers being used by pollsters.

Over the years these numbers averaged 39.5% Democrat, 34% Republican and 26.5% Independent which are very familiar to those of us who have been reading the polls.

Final note: In the biggest polls so far, the ones taken by Matt Drudge on his home page, John McCain has done better and better on the question : who won? The latest poll has over 250,000 respondents saying McCain won 71/28/1. Again the media will ignore these numbers, but they speak very loudly for themselves.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

“Catholics change course, now back Obama by 10 points!”

Okay now that I have your attention let’s look at the demographics that make up the headlines we have been reading.

Since 1964 no Democrat has won the White male vote. White males have been steadily backing away from the party of high taxes and low patriotism year after year. In 1964 very few people had heard of Ronald Reagan except for his work as an actor. The White males who started to move away from the Democrats were not Reagan Democrats. They were men who tired of the continued leftward drift of their party. They’re gone and not coming back.

This year the Democrats are running a man who is a Black socialist with a Muslim name.

In 2000 Al Gore got 36% of the White male vote. Four years later John Kerry got 36% of the White male vote. Does it seem likely Barack Obama will do even as well with White males as the two White males before him?

Clearly it’s a good bet that the poll numbers showing Obama ahead are not coming from the 43% of voters who will be White males.

Catholic vote

In 2000 Gore won among Catholics, 50/47. In 2004 there was a strong grassroots effort to win Catholic votes for George Bush. He beat Kerry, who is a Catholic, by six points.

This year Catholic bishops have taken an active part in explaining the grave error of voting for a supporter of abortion, let alone allowing abortion survivors to slowly die in a closet to “meet the original intent of the procedure” as Obama put it.

Catholics will be 26% of voters. Obama was down 56/37 at last look. Does anyone think the bishops’s statements have closed the gap?

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

So your co-worker or brother-in-law doesn’t “really see” how a Barack Obama Administration would differ from a John McCain Administration. Here’s some facts to use in your next discussion.

Barney Frank, the leftist Congressman has sponsored a bill to provide grant money to La Raza, the openly racist group that wants to erase the Mexican border and return the whole western end of America to Mexico. McCain will stop these payments, Obama won’t.

John McCain wants to continue the Bush tax cuts. Barack Obama does not and that will raise our taxes more than 650 billion dollars.

World wide, Islam has now overtaken Roman Catholicism as the largest religion. Under McCain this will be a threat, under Obama this will be far more than a threat. Islamic law holds that anyone who says he is a Muslim and prays in a mosque just once is a Muslim. Saying Obama is not a Muslim in the eyes of our enemies is foolishness.

With Obama in the White House, Nancy Pelosi will re-introduce the so-called “Fairness Doctrine” which will slowly and certainly choke off Talk Radio any religious shows and Fox News. Before long you will not hear Limbaugh or see Hannity because their stations will be forced to run “opposing views.”

The Democrats under Obama will ram through House Resolution 900 which would mean Puerto Rican statehood which will make America officially a bi lingual country. It will also guarantee at least 6 new Democrat Congressmen and 2 new Democrat Senators FOREVER. That will make taking America back from the socialists impossible.

A December 2007 bill amendment to a Senate measure gave the sole discretion to clear the way to build the Mexican border fence to the Secretary of Homeland Security. This means an Obama appointee will stop construction cold.

Besides these problems, Obama will trample on the Second Amendment.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The number of newly registered Democratic voters ACORN has produced is indeed impressive, but is it a reliable measure of public sentiment? Clearly some of these “new Democrats” are people who felt an attraction to the party of high taxes and low patriotism. Nevertheless, at least some of these “new Democrats” registered solely to act as moles and vote in Democrat primaries, while many other “new Democrats” were registered dozens of times or never existed. Nobody knows how many of ACORN’s new Democrat registrations are fraudulent. Considering that a seven year old was “registered”, it seems very likely that a large percentage of them are bogus.

The semi-sane Left dismisses this development as meaningless because “They won’t vote anyway, or they will be stopped at the polls.” This sounds reasonable, so what’s the real problem? Aside from the obvious, the problem is these “new Democratic” registration numbers skew the polls.

Consider this: If a state had a 40-40-20 Democrat, Republican and Independent split before a surge of bogus ACORN registrations, the “new” numbers could be 46-36-18. As was pointed out by Freeper queenkathy, this then causes the pollsters to weight the number of respondents they use to the only numbers they can use: 46-36-18.

When the totally illusive “Bradley factor” is put into the equation it is a wonder that John McCain is as “close” as he is.

If Barack Obama really believed these numbers why would he buy thirty minutes of airtime to try to explain away his connections to Bill Ayers and ACORN, neither of which he will actually be able to do?

His target audience will be the so-called moderates and undecideds. Some percentage of them will reject his excuses and use them as self-justification not to vote for Obama.

What if all of this is true?

Won’t it change everything?

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Some polls say John McCain is falling behind. I will believe these polls when I see headlines screaming :

“Catholics, Evangelicals, and Whites abandoning McCain to support Obama”

The media is reporting there’s a “ fight among Catholics over which party to support.” They offer wishful thinking, but no proof to support this claim.

The last Catholic voter numbers said McCain led 57/36 among this group that will be 26% of voters. Where are the new “bad Catholic” numbers for McCain?

Where are the “new” poll numbers of Evangelicals ( 15% of voters) showing shrinking support for McCain and Sarah Palin?

Where are the “new” White male (43%) poll numbers showing Obama even keeping pace with the 36% Al Gore and John Kerry got?

If the Obama “surge” is because of a major swing of women toward him, what the about the 28% of Clinton backers still supporting McCain?

If Obama has “all” Independents, where’s the numbers?

Last week two polls had McCain ahead with Independents (26%) by 15 and a third had him down 5.

Of course there’s Black voters, but there has not been a single poll showing Obama actually getting the 95% from Blacks he needs. Where are the stories talking about Obama’s shortfall in this column?
We don’t hear this much, but Obama needs huge and almost impossible increases in Black turnout and 95% support from Blacks plus holding all White voters Kerry got to win. Have we seen a single story in the last three months talking about this obstacle? Where are the survey results that Obama is getting better than the standard 92% of the Black vote that any Democrat gets?

If Barack Obama really believed he is winning big, would he buy the half hour?

His private polls might be telling him otherwise. But if the latest poll showing him up 8 in West Virginia meant nothing to him, why make the buy?

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

First let’s say this: Obama did not win.

No matter what the Democrat controlled media says, the “tell” was on the home page of the Drudge report. Just as in the first two debates, the respondents to Matt Drudge’s simple “who won” question overwhelmingly said, first John McCain then a week later Sarah Palin. Yesterday’s Drudge results were the same as in the first two polls: McCain won 66/30.

Drudge reports 29 million daily visitors. All of these polls recorded about 500,000 votes. A fair guess says he gets about 15 million unique visitors. That is the equivalent of polling Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Mexico.

Drudge allows no double voting. He does nothing to steer his respondents either way. His poll is clean cut and simple. In a basic interactive poll, the same as Zogby and Rasmussen use, Drudge merely asks, “Who won?”

Using a reasonable assumption, we’d have to allow that people who take the time to vote in this survey are at least as likely to actually vote as the self reporting likely voters talking to Zogby and Rasmussen.

Let’s consider the differences in sample size. These pollsters have to make 9600 calls to get 500 likely voters. If they triple this effort they might reach out to 30,000 people and get 1700 likely voters. At that rate, to get 500,000 responses, one would have to make nearly 50 million calls.

Carrying this line of logic to its ultimate conclusion tells us it is very unlikely that national polls use anywhere near 300,000 calls let alone 50 million calls.

So who won?

This doesn’t automatically mean Drudge’s respondents will vote for McCain, but a strong case can be made that the total anonymity Drudge offers might very well be tapping into a reality untouched by other systems.

Since Tuesday night there has been some tightening in other polls. Maybe our good friends in the media pundit class were wrong about who won. Their views certainly don’t match this slice of reality.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

This is Part One.

These facts were compiled by the National Rifle Association. As a life member I’m passing these facts about Barack Obama’s Second amendment record to you.

Every American who cares about our hard won right to carry a firearm should take the time to read and understand the meaning of these facts about why Barack Obama presents a clear and present danger to the continued life of the Second Amendment.

On March 13, 2003, Obama voted for a bill that was actually an attempt to link simple semi automatic rifles and double barrel shotguns to assault weapons for the obvious purpose of outlawing all of these guns.

On April 2, 2008 a Pittsburgh paper reported that Obama opposes Right to Carry laws.

Obama wants to ban use of firearms for defending your own home.

Obama voted against Justices Alito and Roberts. He said he’d have voted against Justices Thomas and Scalia.

Obama’s Supreme Court could destroy our rights immediately after the 2010 mid-term elections. We won by a single vote this year, but we will lose by a single vote two years from now. Obama will get two Supreme Court picks. Add a Kennedy flip and we lose by one vote.

Can you envision any way we would ever be able to regain our rights, once an Obama packed Court wiped them away?

Think of the public hearings showing gunshot victims who “would be alive today were it not for an evil firearm.”

Obama’s clearly an enemy of our Second Amendment rights. He’s sold us out to Hollywood leftists that hate us. Obama cringes at our patriotism and our ‘Main Street America’ way of life. In Obama’s eyes we are scared xenophobes clinging to our guns and bibles, too dumb to understand that guns are dangerous.

It’s up to us stop Barack Obama now because he will certainly end the Second Amendment forever if he ever gets into the White House.

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The liberal media is in the tank for Barack Obama. It’s working full time to elect the Obama/Biden ticket, and that’s not arguable. They no longer deny it.

Over the years I have advised many candidates. When we talk about the media I always say, “Deal with the media like they were your new girlfriend’s twelve year old daughter. Remember, the kid can’t do anything for you, but with a lie here or a lie there, she can cripple you.”

Palin understands this about the media.

She knows their agenda: wreck conservatives.

Palin recognizes they are her avowed enemies. She doesn’t have to sit down with snakes to know how dangerous they are.

Recently a “smuggled out” message alerted the free world that in the writer’s “newsroom” the action stops when Obama appears on a television screen so the comrades can cheer. That says it all.

Immediately following the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s Vice Presidential running mate, she was attacked by dozens of insane and vicious anti Palin “news stories.”

There was even a fake “sale” of her Down’s syndrome afflicted infant son on line that described the child as a “political prop.”

Other stories confidently claimed Todd Palin’s former business partner was getting a divorce because of an affair he had with Governor Palin.

Throughout all these loathsome and sick attacks, Palin has proved she understands America’s morally bankrupt media very well. During her debate with Joe Biden she looked into the camera and said, “I like to speak past the mainstream media.”

This says she knows a snake when she sees one; she recognizes the media as the vicious twelve year olds they are.

Sarah Palin knows facing down an angry moose is scary, but dealing a yapping media poodle is not.

During these final weeks of campaigning we will see Palin’s toughness and determination to overcome obstacles the media only reads about or sees in the movies. She is modeling her handling of the media on Ronald Reagan’s approach’ and she will be heard.

Senator McCain, it’s time man up and demand answers to these questions

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The timing of political moves is always as important as the moves themselves.
Elections are won and lost each cycle because political ammunition is mishandled or precisely used.

The ammunition John McCain has against Barack Obama is copious, and now is the time to use it. When they square off McCain has to demand answers to these questions.

If America is not what it used to be, when was America at her best?

You sponsored a bill to turnover 80 billion America taxpayer dollars to the United Nations every year until they decide they’ve taken enough, how can you claim to be a friend of the middle class?

Why do you want to take the cap off FICA taxes and double capital gains taxes?

Why have all the world’s communist dictators endorsed you?

Why is there no America flag on your plane?

What truly difficult decisions have you made in your life?

How do you explain your lack of support among Catholic and Evangelical Christians?

You hold duel Kenyon and American citizenship, will you renounce your Kenyon citizenship or be the only American president in history to maintain this status?

When will you admit that your ties to Tony Rezko and Bill Ayers are as they have been reported?

Explain how your tax plan gives relief to 95% of tax payers when 45% don’t pay any taxes right now?

Explain why no one but Senator Dodd got more money from employees of Freddy and Fannie then you?

You have talked about rural voters bitterly clinging to their bibles and guns while being suspicious of those not like them, do you regret having said these things?

It’s time for John McCain to man up, get tough and demand answers