Collins Report

By Fritz Wenzel

The latest Wenzel Strategies polling shows the wave of GOP ascendancy that started last year and washed over Democratic strongholds in New Jersey and Massachusetts is now on display in Ohio.

Kasich’s healthy lead

In recent polling, I found that incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland trails Republican challenger John Kasich by 10 points, 43% to 33%. In prospective U.S. Senate races between Republican Rob Portman, a former Bush cabinet member, and Democrats Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner finds Portman leads each by a handful.

A few short months ago, Democrats led in all of these races.
Polling here reveals a national trend, but instead of being a trailing indicator behind New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts, Ohio has actually been leading the way. We saw softness in support for Ohio Democrats last summer. While voters in Massachusetts were telling pollsters the biggest issue – far and away – is national health care reform, the discontent in Ohio runs far deeper. In truth, it never left after Ohioans tossed Republicans from office in 2006.

Voters here are upset about the languishing economy. Despite political promises, Ohio’s economy has never really come back from the recession a decade ago.
So the question is can Ohio Democrats regain control of their own destiny before November? The honest answer is – probably not. So much of national – and Ohio – politics the last five years has been based on a campaign slogan that could best be described as: “Vote for Us – we’re not as bad as the other guys!” While that can get you elected in a negative political atmosphere, it seldom gets you re-elected – a lesson Ohio Democrats appear poised to learn the hard way.

Ohio: the bellwether state

Ohio has long been considered a bellwether state for politics, largely because the population and geography mimics the country at large. It has several large media markets that are each distinct from each other (Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Dayton, etc.), which is to say it has a healthy mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters. Its politics are also similar to the country at large in that it is a center–right state that isn’t afraid to elect Democrats now and again. In fact, right now, all but one of the statewide, non–judicial offices are held by Democrats – which is why Ohioans saw this current political train wreck coming for the Democrats before everyone else.

The state has suffered with a bad economy not for just one year, like most of the rest of the country, but rather for several years. In many ways Ohio has not yet recovered from the recession that started ten years ago next month with the bursting of the technology bubble on Wall Street. So after Democrat Ted Strickland was elected in 2006 on a promise of change and hope for a better state economy, he was setting himself up for some tough sledding – just as President Obama has faced on a national scale.

The Ohio economy has worsened not improved under Strickland, and voters have been discontented with him for years now. So Ohio had already been suffering under Democratic political leadership when Obama was elected. It is no surprise then that the state led the nation is its desire for change, and it is no surprise that today Republicans lead in the key statewide Ohio races. So while Virginia, New Jersey, and now Massachusetts have all had their turns at rejecting Democrats – and the Obama agenda – my poll numbers show Ohioans are poised to do the same later this year.

About Fritz Wenzel:

Fritz Wenzel is President of Wenzel Strategies, a polling and communications consulting firm based in Columbus, Ohio, with clients nationwide. He is an award–winning political journalist who has worked mostly in newspapers but also in radio and television. He is an accomplished pollster, having worked for Zogby International before launching his own firm. His website is: www.wenzelstrategies.com

Yesterday’s Rasmussen Presidential Index had Obama at -12

This day in history January 21
2003: The Census Bureau reported that for the first time Hispanics had surpassed Blacks as the largest minority group in America.

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