Collins Report

By Fritz Wenzel

There are really only two data points political insiders always want to know when they learn a new poll has come out of the field: What are the job approval numbers and what do voters say about whether the city/county/state/country is headed in the right direction or is off on the wrong track.

Oh, the other stuff is important. But the data from these questions is the very foundation of an officeholder’s existence. The first data point is an officeholder’s job performance rating. Everyone talks about that one.

You may have heard much less about the data from the second question, the “right direction/wrong track question. This data tells us how people feel about things in general – are we headed in the right direction or on the wrong track? Do people feel good about their situation and the situation around them, or not? Are people optimistic about the future, or not? The job performance data tells us whether and how much people blame or credit a particular officeholder for the way things are. This is why these questions are asked together.

Right track/wrong track

The “right direction/wrong track” question can be useful in forecasting political events. It also helps to look at similar data points from the past to see what happened then. For instance, in my most recent Wenzel Strategies polling, just 36% said they think the country is on the right track. The same percentage – 36% – said “right track” about the direction of the country in late October, 2006. A week later voters nationwide tossed Republicans from Congress en masse, ending 12 years of GOP rule in Washington.
I’m not making a prediction here – simply noting the historical record: a political atmosphere very much like this 4 years ago gave us a Washington sea change.

Driving off a cliff

Are we headed for a similar result this year? No one knows for sure – Election Day is nine months away. But with every passing week when there is no noticeable improvement in the economy and no moderation of Democratic proposals in Congress, a massive change becomes more possible. This becomes still more possible when you consider that a modern President’s second year poll numbers are seldom better than those of his first in term with the terrorist attacks of 2001 being a notable exception.
Considering Obama’s political wounds – which started showing up in slumping poll numbers not long after his inauguration – have all been self–inflicted, there is little reason for confidence he can or will change his ways to move the poll numbers higher. He said as much in his recent State of the Union message: “I won’t quit.”
That being true, neither will the plummeting of his poll numbers.

What did you do to defend American freedoms yesterday? What will you do today and what do you plan to do tomorrow?

Sources: www.wenzelstrategies.com

http://www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/michael-jackson/sc-dc-obama-dems04-20100203,0,987524.story

About Fritz Wenzel:
Fritz Wenzel is President of Wenzel Strategies, a polling and communications consulting firm based in Columbus, Ohio, with clients nationwide. He is an award–winning political journalist who has worked mostly in newspapers but also in radio and television. He is an accomplished pollster, having worked for Zogby International before launching his own firm. His website is: www.wenzelstrategies.com

Yesterday’s Rasmussen Presidential Index had Obama at -6

This day in history February 4
2004: Proving “It” KNOWS better than the people do, the Massachusetts Supreme Court declared that Gays had the right to marry.

Have you read this week’s “Betcha didn’t know this..” page? It’s loaded with interesting little “bite size” items you’re bound to enjoy.

Comments on this or any other Collins Report essay can be sent to kcoachc “at” gmail.com