Collins Report

By Fritz Wenzel

For months now there have been many national polls released that showed growing disapproval of the various health care reform proposals circulating in the halls of Congress. Still, in the face of increasing dissatisfaction, congressional Democrats unwisely pushed forward.

Republicans have made major gains in the minds of the public because of the Democratic missteps.

Sampling to fit a template

Now comes a new ABC/Washington Post poll this week that shows that maybe health care reform may not be so widely hated after all. It says 58% want a bi–partisan health reform bill passed.
What? Less than a month ago Americans hated health care reform by a two–to–one margin.

Polls like this make voters scratch their heads, while us industry insiders simply shake ours – because it is easy to see the poll has serious problems.

The most obvious is the sample by partisan affiliation. The sample includes 32% Democrats, 26% Republicans, and 39% independents. This is so far off from the actual partisan make–up of the country as to render the poll findings largely meaningless.

There is no way Democrats enjoy a 6 percentage point edge over Republicans right now, and worse, there is no way 39% are independents. Of course Democrats want a bi–partisan health care reform because they want to be able to share the blame with the GOP when things go sour. And independents are well–known to favor anything that includes the phrase “bi–partisan.” No wonder they found 58% want a bi–partisan health bill!
The poll analysis says it shows Democrats now “have potential pushback” on the issue. The truth is public sentiment has not recently changed on the issue, and any Washington politician who relies on this poll data deserves the hearty political beating that will certainly follow.

Making it “fit” or doing it right

The new ABC/Washington Post poll offers a teachable moment to explain that there are at least two schools of thought on how to deal with partisan affiliation in calculating polling data. Some simply take the sample they get and make no adjustments to make sure the sample includes the proper proportion of Democrats to Republicans to Independents. The television network pollsters don’t apply party affiliation “weights” to their sample to make them conform to the make–up of the country. Neither does Gallup. But Zogby does. And Rasmussen does. At Wenzel Strategies we too.

Those of us who do apply weights do so because we believe when you measure national politics, or state politics, or local politics, your political affiliation should reflect the make–up of the target group you are trying to measure. This is why we also pay close attention to question order and format, so that as closely as possible we mimic the language that would appear on the ballot in an election.

I have never understood the arguments of those who don’t make adjustments to their sample for political affiliation. Their arguments just don’t make sense to me.

Time proves who is right

One thing I do understand is that, in the last 25 years of national political polling, there have been no more accurate firms than Zogby and Rasmussen, and that’s why my practices at Wenzel Strategies are modeled after those industry leaders. And that’s why you should pay attention to such things, too, because sometimes there are several different shades of truth when it comes to public opinion research of political issues.

What did you do yesterday to be worthy of the American freedoms you enjoy?

What will you do today and what do you plan to do tomorrow?

About Fritz Wenzel:
Fritz Wenzel is President of Wenzel Strategies, a polling and communications consulting firm based in Columbus, Ohio, with clients nationwide. He is an award–winning political journalist who has worked mostly in newspapers but also in radio and television. He is an accomplished pollster, having worked for Zogby International before launching his own firm. His website is: www.wenzelstrategies.com

Yesterday’s Rasmussen Presidential Index had Obama at -12

This day in history February 11
1916: Emma Goldman–an anarchist and Communist was arrested for lecturing on birth control.

1953: Dwight Eisenhower refused a plea for clemency for Ethel and Julius Rosenberg.

Have you read this week’s “Betcha didn’t know this..” page? It’s loaded with interesting little “bite size” items you’re bound to enjoy.

Comments on this or any other Collins Report essay can be sent to kcoachc “at” gmail.com