Collins Report

By Fritz Wenzel

Talk about arriving late to the dance!
Last week’s breathless CNN news release proclaimed their brand new survey showed Americans had grown worried their own government is a threat to individual rights and freedoms. This report comes after our own Wenzel Strategies polling had shown the same thing – in mid–December.

In fact, Wenzel Strategies has been tracking deterioration in the public’s confidence in government and concern over its increased activism for nearly a year.

Our survey during mid–December, a time of year when Americans are typically upbeat and optimistic about the coming holiday season, found respondents were particularly worried. It showed a significant majority of the public is worried the government is in the process of stealing away our rights as American citizens.

This was one of the findings of the WorldNetDaily.com Freedom Index, a monthly rating that aggregates the results of 10 questions all relating to different freedoms – including freedom of speech, association, and worship. The Freedom Index, instituted in May of last year, took a shocking plunge during the closing months of last year that coincided with the push by Barack Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi to force a sweeping health care reform bill through the Congress on the eve of the holidays.

Though health care reform stalled, at least temporarily in January, the Freedom Index numbers have not recovered. It is doubtful they will any time soon, because just when Obama sounds completely moderate and reasoned, another czar or some Democrat on Capitol Hill announces another radical change to a long–standing policy. The cumulative effect is to stifle all growth.

Both the Wenzel Strategies polling and the CNN poll that confirms the trend clearly point to a greater anxiety in the nation over the specter of radical policies replacing the status quo.

Obama Reid and Pelosi stoking the fires of anxiety

Witness the recent Environmental Protection Agency proclamation that they will regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant. Witness Harry Reid’s statements that he will use the “reconciliation process” to bypass the time–honored cloture process to shove a massive health care bill through the U.S. Senate each has rung alarm bells across the nation.

Obama’s pious claim that he would rather be a good one–term President than a mediocre two–term President adds to the general feeling of unease. Such statements leave us average Americans wondering what “good” thing could he do as a first–term President that would make us hate him so much that we wouldn’t re–elect him? In saying such a thing, Obama almost tips his hand, as if to say he knows what he considers “good” will be abhorred by the rest of us – or at least by a solid majority.

Is our President really intent on working against the interests of a majority of his own countrymen?

This is the question at the heart of America’s current anxiety. Seeing these deteriorating polling numbers month after month, it is no mystery the national economy is not recovering. Employers, especially smaller employers, are not about to hire new staff with all of the uncertainty in the air. And the abject unpredictability about what Congress or the Administration will do next – or, more properly, regulate next – is keeping any expansion on ice.

Americans know on what fronts they face threats from their government this week. The trouble is, there is apparently growing anxiety that, next week, another new threat may emerge.

What did you do to be worthy of your American freedoms yesterday? What will you do today and what do you plan to do tomorrow?

Sources: www.wenzelstrategies.com

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=125979

About Fritz Wenzel:
Fritz Wenzel is President of Wenzel Strategies a public opinion research and communications firm based in Columbus Ohio. Wenzel Strategies conducts polling and analysis that matches or exceeds industry standards followed by such firms as Rasmussen Reports, Zogby International, and the Gallup Organization. Fritz Wenzel is an award–winning journalist with 15 years experience in the research industry.

Yesterday’s Rasmussen Presidential Index had Obama at -17

This day in history March 1
1954: Five U.S. congressmen were shot and injured during a House session today when Puerto Rican spectators who yelled “Free Puerto Rico” fired shots into the United States Capitol building.

Have you read this week’s “Betcha didn’t know this..” page? It’s loaded with interesting little “bite size” items you’re bound to enjoy.

Comments on this or any other Collins Report essay can be sent to kcoachc “at” gmail.com

By Fritz Wenzel

For months now there have been many national polls released that showed growing disapproval of the various health care reform proposals circulating in the halls of Congress. Still, in the face of increasing dissatisfaction, congressional Democrats unwisely pushed forward.

Republicans have made major gains in the minds of the public because of the Democratic missteps.

Sampling to fit a template

Now comes a new ABC/Washington Post poll this week that shows that maybe health care reform may not be so widely hated after all. It says 58% want a bi–partisan health reform bill passed.
What? Less than a month ago Americans hated health care reform by a two–to–one margin.

Polls like this make voters scratch their heads, while us industry insiders simply shake ours – because it is easy to see the poll has serious problems.

The most obvious is the sample by partisan affiliation. The sample includes 32% Democrats, 26% Republicans, and 39% independents. This is so far off from the actual partisan make–up of the country as to render the poll findings largely meaningless.

There is no way Democrats enjoy a 6 percentage point edge over Republicans right now, and worse, there is no way 39% are independents. Of course Democrats want a bi–partisan health care reform because they want to be able to share the blame with the GOP when things go sour. And independents are well–known to favor anything that includes the phrase “bi–partisan.” No wonder they found 58% want a bi–partisan health bill!
The poll analysis says it shows Democrats now “have potential pushback” on the issue. The truth is public sentiment has not recently changed on the issue, and any Washington politician who relies on this poll data deserves the hearty political beating that will certainly follow.

Making it “fit” or doing it right

The new ABC/Washington Post poll offers a teachable moment to explain that there are at least two schools of thought on how to deal with partisan affiliation in calculating polling data. Some simply take the sample they get and make no adjustments to make sure the sample includes the proper proportion of Democrats to Republicans to Independents. The television network pollsters don’t apply party affiliation “weights” to their sample to make them conform to the make–up of the country. Neither does Gallup. But Zogby does. And Rasmussen does. At Wenzel Strategies we too.

Those of us who do apply weights do so because we believe when you measure national politics, or state politics, or local politics, your political affiliation should reflect the make–up of the target group you are trying to measure. This is why we also pay close attention to question order and format, so that as closely as possible we mimic the language that would appear on the ballot in an election.

I have never understood the arguments of those who don’t make adjustments to their sample for political affiliation. Their arguments just don’t make sense to me.

Time proves who is right

One thing I do understand is that, in the last 25 years of national political polling, there have been no more accurate firms than Zogby and Rasmussen, and that’s why my practices at Wenzel Strategies are modeled after those industry leaders. And that’s why you should pay attention to such things, too, because sometimes there are several different shades of truth when it comes to public opinion research of political issues.

What did you do yesterday to be worthy of the American freedoms you enjoy?

What will you do today and what do you plan to do tomorrow?

About Fritz Wenzel:
Fritz Wenzel is President of Wenzel Strategies, a polling and communications consulting firm based in Columbus, Ohio, with clients nationwide. He is an award–winning political journalist who has worked mostly in newspapers but also in radio and television. He is an accomplished pollster, having worked for Zogby International before launching his own firm. His website is: www.wenzelstrategies.com

Yesterday’s Rasmussen Presidential Index had Obama at -12

This day in history February 11
1916: Emma Goldman–an anarchist and Communist was arrested for lecturing on birth control.

1953: Dwight Eisenhower refused a plea for clemency for Ethel and Julius Rosenberg.

Have you read this week’s “Betcha didn’t know this..” page? It’s loaded with interesting little “bite size” items you’re bound to enjoy.

Comments on this or any other Collins Report essay can be sent to kcoachc “at” gmail.com